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Mitt Romney has emerged from a bruising primary as the only serious Republican presidential candidate. The small field of Republican hopefuls also included fellow-Mormon Jon Huntsman. Is this a coincidence? replica watches

Maybe not. Look at the candidates’ family histories. Romney, from a family of six, has five children, while Huntsman has eight siblings and is the father of seven. Only the conservative Catholic, Rick Santorum, can match this: a major reason he offered for pulling out of the Republican race is the fatal condition of his seventh child, Bella.

Consider the power of population change to shape politics. With little fanfare, steady differences in birth rates between conservative and liberal white Protestants in the 20th century have virtually doubled the relative heft of evangelicals in the US. Conservative religious women and other Americans continue to change America as whites gradually become more evangelical and Mormon.

At the same time, Mormons have become solidly Republican. Though 70% of Jews back the Democrats replica watches, fully 75% of Mormons now tick the Republican box. With their conservative family values, Mormons are both natural Republicans and naturally growing. When demographers undertook a state-by-state plot of white birth rates against the vote for George Bush in 2004, they discovered an 80% correlation. Fecund Mormon Utah occupied the top right hand corner of the chart, followed by the evangelical states of the Deep South, with relatively infertile liberal New England holding down the lower left corner. As Michael Lind commented in 2005, “Among white Americans fertility differences reflect a gulf between the religious and the secular. In largely Mormon Utah, there are 90 children for every 1,000 women of child-bearing age, compared to only 49 in the socially liberal Vermont of Howard Dean.”

Mormons have maintained a one or two-child fertility advantage over other white Americans for over a century replica watches, and as this growth compounds, they are slowly emerging as a political force.

Their membership has expanded at the rate of at least 40% per decade since their inception in 1830 to the point where sociologist Rodney Stark predicts they will become the newest major world religion. Natural growth has helped Mormons maintain their population share in their Utah heartland in the teeth of considerable non-Mormon immigration.

The share of non-Mormons in Utah peaked at 40% in 1920, declining to around 25% by the late 20th century. Today, Latino and Asian growth has reduced Utah’s white share to 80 percent, but among whites, Mormons account for three-quarters of the total. Mormons are also a significant and rising share of the white population of nearby Idaho (27% Mormon), Nevada, Arizona and Wyoming. In contrast to the pattern among other denominations, highly-educated Mormons like Mitt Romney are both more religious and have larger families than less-educated Mormons.

As the community expands, they are beginning to flex their political muscles. Mormon activists have played important roles in anti-gay rights measures like Proposition 8 in California, and have joined hands with conservative Catholics, Protestants and Muslims to limit American support for worldwide family planning at the United Nations.

Nationwide, their six million-plus American members exceeds the country’s four million Jews. Though less influential in the nation’s culture industries than Jews, Mormons are wealthy, highly-educated and well-organised. As the proportion of non-Hispanic whites – the bedrock of the Republican Party – ebbs toward 50% of the American population in 2050, Mormon clout within the Republican Party is bound to rise. In this, they will be emulating or even exceeding the role played by Jews within the Democratic Party.

Can demography really shape a country’s political destiny? Mormons feel notoriously warm towards the people of the Book, and a comparison with Israel reveals what is possible. There, the ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) Jews have three times the birth rate of other Jews.

In 1960, they made up only a few percent of Israeli Jewish first graders. Today they comprise a third. The 400 draft exemptions granted by David Ben-Gurion to them in 1948 have swollen to 70,000. Since the Haredim tend not to work, their projected increase has prompted Stanley Fischer, Governor of the Bank of Israel, and Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz, to issue warnings about the continued viability of the Israeli welfare state. Once content to keep a low profile, the ultra-Orthodox are increasingly assertive in challenging the declining secular majority. They have elected their first mayor of Jerusalem. Their activists rip away faces of women on Jerusalem’s billboards, spit on short-sleeved schoolgirls, demand gender segregation on buses and are contesting the legitimacy of Israel’s secular judiciary.

Meanwhile religious zionists, a group whose birth rates and sympathies lie between those of the ultra-Orthodox and other Jews, form a sharply rising share of the Israeli Defence Force’s officer corps. Mormons are neither as conservative nor as fertile as the ultra-Orthodox Jews, but like the Haredim, their demographic and political ascent seems certain.

GENEVA, Apr. 29 Handmade Tattoo Machines, 2012 (Reuters) — Fiscal austerity and tough labor reforms have failed to create jobs, leading to an “alarming” situation in the global employment market that shows no sign of recovering, the International Labour Organization said on Sunday.

In advanced countries Tattoo needles, especially in Europe, employment is not expected to return to pre-crisis levels of 2008 until the end of 2016 — two years later than it previously predicted — in line with a slowdown in production.

An estimated 196 million people were unemployed worldwide at the end of last year, forecast to rise to 202 million in 2012 for a rate of 6.1 percent, according to the United Nations agency’s annual flagship report, “World of Work Report 2012″.

“Austerity has not produced more economic growth,” Raymond Torres, director of the ILO Institute for International Labour Studies, told a news briefing.

“The ill-conceived labor market reforms in the short-term cannot work either. These reforms in situations of crisis tend to lead to more job destruction and very little job creation at least in the short-term,” said Torres, the report’s lead author.

Long-term jobseekers are demoralized and an average of 40 percent of job seekers in their prime (aged 25-49) in advanced countries have been without work for more than a year, the report found.

Youth jobless rates have soared, increasing the risk of social unrest especially in parts of Africa and the Middle East.

The labor market overall has deteriorated over the past six months, with a very significant slowdown in the case of European countries, Torres said. Unemployment is growing in a significant number of countries, including more than two-thirds of European countries over the past year.

“The narrow focus of many Eurozone countries on fiscal austerity is deepening the jobs crisis and could even lead to another recession in Europe,” he said.

“In addition, there is less progress happening in other parts of the world, for example the United States, where progress in reducing unemployment seems to be slowing down and this seems to be a trend,” he said.

Labor market recovery has also stalled in Japan, the report said. Employment rates have stagnated or “double-dipped” in China, India and Saudi Arabia, while Latin America is healthier, marked by improvements in Argentina, Brazil and Mexico.

“ILL-CONCEIVED REFORMS”

“The report clearly points to the combination of austerity measures with ill-conceived labor market reforms as the real cause for deterioration happening in Europe and little by little spreading to other parts of the world,” Torres said.

In Spain, unemployment shot up to 24 percent in the first quarter, its highest level in almost two decades and one of the worst jobless figures in the developed world, according to figures issued last Friday. Standard and Poor’s downgraded the government’s debt by two notches.

The number of jobless in France rose for the eleventh month in March to hit the highest level since September 1999, according to labor ministry data released on Thursday.

The EU, which generates about a fifth of global output Professional Tattoo Kits, has struggled to strike a balance between austerity and growth as it seeks to overcome a decade of runaway spending while grappling with recession.

Only six advanced economies have seen employment rates grow since 2007: Austria, Germany, Israel, Luxembourg, Malta and Poland.

The report recommends countries would do better to boost job quality and reinforce institutions, rather than deregulating labor markets.

It also suggests better use of European Structural Funds as well as an increase in minimum wages in European countries “as a way to put a floor on recession in Europe.”

“At the ILO we understand that fiscal deficits cannot remain high for long. It is important to have a medium-term fiscal consolidation strategy,” Torres said.

“But it is a question of pace and of content of fiscal consolidation. The pace has to be realistic,” he said.

(Reporting by Stephanie Nebehay; Editing by Sophie Walker)

Yesterday’s monthly report from the U.S. Labor Department is the big news in today’s papers: The nation’s employers cut 533,000 jobs in November, the largest monthly job-shedding since 1974. Congressional Democrats are near a deal with the White House to help out the flagging auto industry with the goal of preventing even nastier unemployment numbers.

The New York Times notes high up in its lead story that the bad numbers do not include people who are underemployed or who have simply stopped looking for work. Counting those folks would nearly double the November unemployment tally, putting it at 12.5 percent instead of 6.7 percent. President-elect Barack Obama called for public spending to solve the crisis, but the Times says Obama’s vague plan to create 2.5 million jobs would “barely recover the jobs that have disappeared over the last year,” given the accelerating losses.

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The Wall Street Journal points out that the 1.9 million jobs so far lost in 2008 makes the current recession the worst downturn since the years following World War II. The government revised down its data for the previous two months, and the WSJ says could do the same for November, which could leave us with a final figure even worse than the 602 Tattoo Supplies,000 jobs shed in December 1974 (though the paper provides perspective, noting that because the 2008 economy is 75 percent larger than its 1974 counterpart, today’s bad numbers are less dramatic).

The Washington Post highlights the low price of oil and high number of homeowners behind on mortgage payments or in foreclosure—10 percent. Some predict unemployment will rise to 10 percent as well by the end of 2009. The situation is “unraveling so fast as to deny analysis by the usual statistical models,” says the Post. The paper points out what colorful language economists are using to describe the situation, including such terms as “god-awful” and “indescribably terrible.”

Even small businesses are firing people, which the Los Angeles Times says is a particularly bad sign because small businesses typically hang on to their trained workers in anticipation of better times. The Times finds husband-and-wife owners of two heating and air-conditioning firms who fired their own daughter two weeks before her wedding.

Congressional Democrats are nearing a compromise with the White House to provide loans to the flagging Big Three companies of the U.S. auto industry. The WP reports that in talks with the president’s chief of staff, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi dropped her opposition to tapping an existing program for funding fuel-efficient car development to provide the loans. The NYT says congressional Republicans and concern about massive default risk could still sabotage the deal. The WSJ reports that Chrysler has hired a bankruptcy firm.

Enough gloom—let’s turn our attention toward sunny North Dakota, where, according to a Page One NYT story, everything is just fine. In North Dakota, auto sales are up, unemployment is down, foreclosures are few, and the budget is in surplus. Why are things so great in North Dakota? Partly because of surging oil production and a good farming year, but also because of a “never-fancy culture that has nurtured fewer sudden booms of wealth.” In other words Tattoo Supplies, “Our banks don’t do those goofy loans,” as the co-owner of a local car dealership puts it.  

The WP fronts a four-pager on the tricky question of what to do with the thousands of prisoners held in Iraq by the U.S. military. The recently-approved security pact between the Iraqi and U.S. governments calls for all 16,000 prisoners to be released or referred to courts. The story describes a tribunal of U.S. servicemen who decide not whether a detainee is guilty or innocent but whether the person would be dangerous if released. The Post reports that the military has at least made a significant effort to improve the conditions of its prisons.

Evil geeks are winning a global cyber war and malicious software is spreading faster than ever, according to a front-page piece in the NYT. Hackers thrive in foreign countries with little interest in prosecuting cyber misdeeds, and so cyber criminals raise an army of remotely-controlled zombie computers to send penis-enlargement e-mails and stealthily steal your money. Some fear an erosion of confidence in the foundation of 21st-century commerce.

Only the LAT fronts a story on the sentencing of O.J. Simpson to up to 33 years in prison for his attempt to rob a pair of memorabilia dealers. Simpson surprised even the judge by apologizing and getting misty-eyed in a pre-sentencing statement.

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As you may recall, back in June we reported on a decision-making process currently ongoing at Lamborghini headquarters in Sant’Agata Bolognese, Italy, and Volkswagen corporate HQ in Wolfsburg Cheap White Herve leger, Germany. That Lamborghini would produce a vehicle with more seats and doors than its existing range of exotic sportscars was a sure thing – the question was which way the Raging Bull marque would go: crossover or sedan?

Given that other exotic automakers like Porsche and Maserati have gone both ways Buy DKNY Dresses, we asked you, our faithful readers Replica Herve leger strapless, to cast your vote in our informal online poll DKNY Dresses sale, and the outcome was clear: over 59 percent of responders wanted a four-door Lamborghini sedan like the Estoque concept. Less than 18 percent liked the idea of a Lamborghini crossover, overshadowed by the 23.5 percent who would rather see the House that Ferruccio Built stick with supercars.

Unfortunately, the product planners feel differently DKNY Clothes sale, as reports suggest that the crossover is more likely to get the nod than the sedan. Emerging markets like China, India and Latin America – where a soft-roader would prove more popular – have apparently been swaying the decision-makers. The resulting vehicle is likely to borrow its underpinnings from the Porsche Cayenne DKNY Clothes sale, offer all-wheel drive and possibly a turbocharged engine – but no hybrids or diesels.

Of course the announcement hasn’t been made yet, so there’s no telling what might happen until it is, but for now, it looks like the LM002 is coming back, in one form or another, while the Estoque will (for the time being at least) remain a one-off show piece.

An F-22

This is a big deal: The Senate today voted to halt production of the F-22 stealth fighter plane, and it did so 58-40, a margin much wider than expected.

Not only is this a major victory for Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, who lobbied strenuously (something he rarely does) to kill this program, and for President Barack Obama, who pledged to veto the defense bill if it contained a nickel for more F-22s. The vote might also mark the beginning of a new phase in defense politics, a scaling-back of the influence that defense contractors have over budgets and policies.

Then again, I might be dreaming. Surely things couldn’t be changing quite that much. Could they?

In any case, the blow against the F-22 is a substantial step. Gates has been publicly inveighing against the fighter for more than a year, calling it a Cold War relic, noting that it hasn’t been used in any of the wars we’ve fought lately, and noting that our current stock—187 F-22s, which have cost $60 billion to develop Replica BMW Watches, build, and maintain to date—is more than adequate to handle the extremely narrow and unlikely range of threats for which they might be suitable in the future.

The Air Force brass wanted $4 billion in the fiscal year 2010 budget to build 20 more F-22s. Gates slashed the request to zero. The Senate Armed Services Committee voted, 13-11, to shift $1.7 billion from other programs in order to fund another seven planes. That’s the line item that the full Senate excised this afternoon.

The amendment to halt the plane’s production was co-sponsored by Sens. Carl Levin, D-Mich. Where buy best Replica Alain Silberstein Watches, and John McCain, R-Ariz. McCain, who has never been an F-22 fan, went so far as to quote at some length President Dwight Eisenhower’s farewell address, which warned of the “military-industrial complex,” though McCain noted that the proper phrase should be the “military-industrial-congressional complex.”

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That’s really what the F-22 has come to be about. The Air Force shrewdly spread the plane’s contracts to firms in 46 states Corum Replica Watches, thus giving a solid majority of senators—and a lot of House members, too—a financial (and, therefore, electoral) stake in the program’s survival.

Widening the constituency is a tried-and-true method of keeping dubious weapons systems alive. It dates back to 1960, when the managers of the Army’s Nike-Zeus missile-defense program set up subcontractors in 37 states, fearing that the incoming president, John F. Kennedy Fake Harry Winston Watches for sale, would try to kill the system. (Their fear was well-founded; Kennedy and his defense secretary, Robert McNamara, did kill the Nike-Zeus, though the chiefs later pushed through an upgrade.)

The long history of congressional-contractor relations makes today’s Senate vote all the more remarkable. The vote was not along party lines: 15 Republicans sided with Obama and Gates to kill the F-22; 15 Democrats (counting Sen. Joe Lieberman, who’s an Independent) voted to keep the plane alive.

Rather, it was a vote that reflected corporate contracts. The floor leaders of the faction in favor of more F-22s were Sens. Saxby Chambliss, a Republican from Georgia, where the F-22 is assembled Replica IWC Watches, and Chris Dodd, a Democrat from Connecticut, where parts of the plane are built. Joining this strange couple were such erstwhile doves as Barbara Boxer and Dianne Feinstein of California, which also hosts several F-22 contractors.

The floor debate was more transparently self-interested than usual. Dodd argued with intense passion that killing the F-22 would create a “dangerous gap” in America’s technical know-how. The next advanced fighter jet, the F-35 Replica Burberry Watches, won’t enter production until 2014. The highly skilled workers who make F-22s can’t be expected to hang around four years; they’ll get different jobs, and they’ll be unavailable when the country needs them.

Levin took the floor to point out that production of F-35s actually starts next year and that the FY 2010 budget contains money to build 30 of them. In other words, Levin said, “There is no gap.” He wondered where Dodd got his information. Dodd replied that it came from the defense contractors. That’s where he probably got the whole speech, too.

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